Scenario planning is an effective approach when future developments are uncertain and decisions have a major, long-term impact. The Workshop Air&Rail Future Scenarios demonstrates how scenario planning can be applied to complex long-term challenges in international mobility.
This approach was applied within the Air&Rail programme, which builds on the Action Agenda Air&Rail, presented to the Dutch House of Representatives. Within this collaborative framework, ProRail, Schiphol, NS, KLM and the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management explore how international rail travel can develop as a sustainable alternative to, and complement of, air travel. Several years after the publication of the Action Agenda, the need emerged to explore possible next steps towards 2040. The objective is to maintain and strengthen the strategic mobility position of the Netherlands in international transport.
Developing shared future scenarios
During the first workshop, we worked together with the participating organisations to develop shared future scenarios for Air&Rail. All stakeholders were explicitly invited to temporarily set aside their organisational interests. Together, we explored what the world could look like in 2040. This created space for an open dialogue about uncertainties, driving forces and fundamental choices shaping the future of mobility.
After introducing the ‘Navigate the future’ methodology, we started with a brainstorm. The central question was: which external “what if” scenarios for 2040–2050 are conceivable and relevant for the Air&Rail challenge? The outcomes of this brainstorm were then clustered by the group into relevant contextual factors. By assessing these factors in terms of their importance and degree of uncertainty, we were able to identify key uncertainties and construct the scenario framework. It was decided to build on the four societal future scenarios developed by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL): Global Entrepreneurship, Fast World, Green Society and Regionally Rooted. Working with these established scenarios offers advantages: they are well-founded, widely recognised, and place mobility challenges within a broader societal, economic and spatial context. During the workshop, we further explored these scenarios and translated them to the specific context of the Air&Rail challenge.
From future scenarios to an action agenda
In the subsequent phases of the programme, the participating organisations developed and explored various Air&Rail implementation pathways, under the guidance of design researchers from TU Delft. These pathways describe possible development trajectories for Air&Rail towards 2040. The pathways differ in ambition and in the level of integration between rail and aviation. The variants were then systematically tested against the four societal future scenarios. This scenario assessment revealed which measures are robust across multiple future worlds, and where choices are highly dependent on external developments. The insights from this analysis formed an important foundation for the refinement of the Air&Rail action agenda in the Netherlands. Read the outcomes in the Action Agenda Air&Rail – Exploration of Implementation Pathways.
Also interested in exploring the future together with multiple stakeholders? We are happy to think along about how scenario planning can support complex long-term challenges. Feel free to get in touch, or drop by for a cup of coffee.
