What do oil prices, housing markets and financial crises have in common? More than you might expect. In the FD Outlook article “Connections that nobody sees”, Paul de Ruijter explains how seemingly unrelated events are in fact deeply interconnected—and why traditional risk management often falls short.
Many organizations still assess risks in isolation: if three events each have a 10% probability, the combined likelihood appears negligible. But in strategic reality, this logic no longer holds. Economic, political and technological developments continuously influence one another. The financial crisis is a clear example, where problems in the US housing market cascaded into European banking systems and sovereign debt.
Scenario planning helps organizations overcome this limitation by uncovering unexpected connections and reducing uncertainty. Instead of trying to predict a single future, it enables organizations to prepare for multiple plausible scenarios. Leading organizations such as Shell and Rabobank have long used this approach to explore uncertainty and make more robust strategic decisions.
The article highlights a key shift: we are no longer dealing with isolated risks, but with true uncertainty. And within that uncertainty lie opportunities. While some organizations see only threats, others identify new business models—for example in energy transition or healthcare innovation.
Read the full article below and discover how to move beyond isolated risks:
Want to explore how scenario planning can strengthen your strategy? Get in touch with us to discuss how we can help your organization navigate uncertainty.
