De Ruijter Strategy developed housing market scenarios for the Directorate-General for Housing, Construction and Integration (DG WBI). Based on workshops and interviews, we explored multiple future scenarios, assessed their potential impacts, and formulated policy recommendations.
Risks for the housing market and policy challenges
The Directorate-General for Housing, Construction and Integration (DG WBI) of the Dutch Ministry of the Interior commissioned us to develop several economic scenarios and outline the resulting policy challenges for the housing market.
This assignment was driven by a growing awareness that financial markets are becoming increasingly important in achieving housing policy goals. These goals include housing affordability and the availability of sufficient housing. At the same time, the financing of the housing stock has a major impact on financial stability.
DG WBI therefore aimed to gain deeper insight into current developments in financial markets. In addition, the objective was to develop future scenarios to support the policy agenda.
De Ruijter Strategie conducted around ten interviews with experts from the financial and housing sectors and organized two workshops. The insights from these workshops and interviews were compiled in the report ‘Dutch Housing Market Scenarios’.
Four housing market scenarios
The report presents four scenarios:
- Upward spiral (1985–2008): rising house prices, low or declining interest rates, increasing debt levels, and high confidence
- Downward spiral (analogy with 1978–1985): rising inflation and high interest rates, falling house prices, and economic recession
- Japan scenario (post-1990): low growth, low interest rates, low inflation or deflation, population decline, and high public debt
- Acute confidence crisis (analogy with the 2008 Lehman crisis)
Based on these scenarios, we analyzed the potential impacts on the housing market and formulated policy recommendations.
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